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Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting
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Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting

by John Bryant , Junni L. Zhang

Book Details

Format Paperback / Softback
Book Series Chapman & Hall/CRC Statistics in the Social and Behavioral Sciences
ISBN-10 0367571366
ISBN-13 9780367571368
Publisher Taylor & Francis Ltd
Imprint Chapman & Hall/CRC
Country of Manufacture GB
Country of Publication GB
Publication Date Jun 30th, 2020
Print length 292 Pages
Weight 444 grams
Dimensions 15.60 x 23.20 x 1.90 cms
Product Classification: Social forecasting, future studies Psychological methodology Epidemiology & medical statistics Probability & statistics Bayesian inference
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Demographic estimation and forecasting is an important practical problem. Population projections are used to guide billions of dollars of expenditure on things such as roads, housing, shopping complexes, and hospitals. Policy evaluations require detailed estimates of populations at risk, or of demographic outcomes such as mortality.

Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty.



The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com.



"This book will be welcome for the scientific community of forecasters…as it presents a new approach which has already given important results and which, in my opinion, will increase its importance in the future." ~Daniel Courgeau, Institut national d''études démographiques



 

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