Disruptive Change and the Capital Markets : On Information, Risk and Uncertainty

The risk-based approach to capital markets regulation is in crisis. Climate change, shifting demographics, geopolitical conflicts and other environmental discontinuities threaten established business models and shorten the life spans of listed companies. The current rules for periodic disclosure in the EU fail to inform market participants adequately. Unlike risks, uncertainties are unquantifiable or may only be quantified at great cost, causing them to be insufficiently reflected in periodic reports. This is unfortunate, given the pivotal role capital markets must play in the economy’s adaptation to environmental discontinuities. It is only with a reformed framework for periodic disclosure, that gradual and orderly adaptation to these discontinuities appears feasible. To ensure orderly market adaptation, a new reporting format is required: scenario analysis should be integrated into the European framework for periodic disclosure.