This monograph is about techniques for the analysis of energy problems in developing countries. It focuses on energy balances, approaches to demand forecasting, project evaluation, techniques for pricing studies, and approaches to the evaluation of macroeconomic impacts of energy sector decisions.
Over the past decade almost all developing countries have established energy planning activities in response to the grave problems that have arisen as a result of the drastic increase in energy prices, of the burden of energy related investment debt service, and of the problems of deforestation. Although the insti tutional and organizational responses are quite varied, it is largely engineers and economists who have been called upon to provide the necessary analytical capability to support policy decisions in the energy area. However, as evidenced by the recent participants in the Energy Management Training Program (EMTP), many of the analytical techniques now regarded as appropriate go beyond the usual background of those who are now assigned to such tasks. Indeed, this monograph is based on the material presented in the first ·part of the course, whose purpose is to bring the often diverse group to some common ground. Some of the material, such as Chapter 4 on the basics of energy pricing, is intended primarily for engineers. Other sections, such as Chapter 2 on energy balances, is primarily a vehicle for a discussion of the problems of units and differences in approach by different international bodies. The intent, then, is to provide in a single work a primer on a large number of different analytical tools.
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