Experts in Uncertainty : Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science
Book Details
Format
Hardback or Cased Book
Book Series
Environmental Ethics and Science Policy Series
ISBN-10
0195064658
ISBN-13
9780195064650
Publisher
Oxford University Press Inc
Imprint
Oxford University Press Inc
Country of Manufacture
GB
Country of Publication
GB
Publication Date
Jan 30th, 1992
Print length
336 Pages
Weight
649 grams
Dimensions
16.60 x 24.30 x 3.30 cms
Ksh 42,650.00
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This is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. Cooke argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematical foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models. Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
This is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making.Cooke considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert''s uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematical foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models. Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
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