Heads or Tails : Financial Disaster, Risk Management and Survival Strategy in the World of Extreme Risk

Heads or Tails answers the central question which has arisen post-global financial crisis: what changes should financial institutions undergo in order to be able to provide reliable protection against systemic and extreme risks? This book describes practical solutions for building a robust risk management focusing on extreme risk. The framework is designed to help address the tail risk during different stages of its development. The proposed solutions do not target particular tail risk scenarios but allow mitigating extreme risk events in general, even if the event stems from ’unknown unknowns’. While the context of Dr Ivantsov’s writing is financial services, the book contains an important message for specialists from any industries traditionally exposed to the extreme risks (oil/gas, energy, mining, chemical productions, transportation, etc.).

In the wake of the global financial crisis, Heads or Tails answers the question: what changes should financial institutions undergo to ensure reliable protection against extreme risks? Recent massive failures among large and respected financial institutions, clearly demonstrate that contemporary risk management and regulation fail to provide adequate responses to the challenges set by extreme risks. Dr Evgueni Ivantsov combines analysis of the nature of extreme risk (so-called tail risk), risk management practices and practical solutions to build a robust, enterprise-wide, extreme risk management framework which includes three lines of defence, ranging from strategic to tactical, designed to help address the tail risk during different stages of its development. The author also discusses: ¢ Why modern ’sophisticated’ risk management frameworks, strong capitalisation and liquidity do not prevent banks from failure in the face of systemic crisis; ¢ What it means to build an effective defence against systemic and catastrophic losses; ¢ What risk architecture should look like to ensure that extreme risk events are identified early and efficiently mitigated; ¢ How modern management practices, regulation and risk and business culture need to change to guarantee sustainability. While the context of Dr Ivantsov’s writing is financial services, the book contains an important message for specialists from any industries exposed to the extreme risks (oil/gas, energy, mining, chemical productions, transportation, etc.). Until the shortcomings of current risk management and regulation are resolved, financial services and other at risk industries will repeat the painful mistakes of the past, over and over again.