In Pursuit of Foresight : Disaster Incubation Theory Re-imagined

Inquiry reports blame management for failures of foresight based on the premise that, with a little more thought, these oversights should have been avoided. Is it really that simple? The important question is whether, without hindsight, it is possible to identify the factors that lead to the failure. The book is based around Barry Turner’s Disaster Incubation Theory. It explores the way Turner structured his theory and the way it has been used, before re-imagining it to foster foresight. It examines why Turner''s model was chosen, it outlines the issues that need to be considered and how to use the proposed frameworks. Finally, it examines the lessons learnt and provides a worked example. This book provides executives with tools to help them avoid their next crisis.

The book takes Barry Turner’s Disaster Incubation Theory as its central theme. The first chapter explores the way Turner structured his theory and the way it has been used, before re-imagining it as a way to fostering foresight. The next three chapters examine key issues in detail. They explain why Turner''s model was chosen, outline the issues that need to be considered when seeking to prevent such failures and how to use the proposed frameworks. Chapter 5 examines the lessons learnt from this study and, in particular, looks at the mental approach required when seeking such foresight. Finally, Chapter 6 provides a fully worked example. It uses work by Frank Stech who has applied Turner''s theory to a past case.

Crises occur everywhere and we continue to struggle to avoid them. In this book Mike Lauder provides executives with thinking tools to help them avoid missing the warning signs of their next crisis.