Land Use Scenarios : Environmental Consequences of Development

Detailing research supported by the U.S. Marine Corps, this text presents a study of an undeveloped area being impacted by overall regional development. Through this example, the authors explain geographic vulnerability analysis, which takes into consideration possible scenarios about how and when future patterns of land use might develop. It points to consideration of critical uncertainties, those difficult-to-predict aspects of the future, that must be factored into decisions. This work will aid managers and stakeholders to engage spatial contingencies toward the goal of developing more resilient landscapes that can support a primary mission as well as the conservation of natural resources.

Any alteration of the natural processes occurring on a piece of land will have expected as well as unanticipated effects, and those effects have little regard for arbitrary human boundaries. Consequently, it is not enough for land managers to consider only how they might maintain the parcels for which they are responsible; they must also anticipate how changes to neighboring lands might impact their properties.

Land Use Scenarios: Environmental Consequences of Development demonstrates how the success of local decision making is largely determined by factors that are difficult to control or forecast. It shows the importance of geographic vulnerability analysis, which takes into consideration possible scenarios about how, where, and when future patterns of land use might develop. It points to the consideration of critical uncertainties—those aspects of the future, that while difficult to predict, may have a profound impact on pending decisions.

Detailing research supported by the United States Marine Corps, the text presents a study of the region of Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton and Air Station Miramar in California. While this area remains largely un-built, but extensively used, ongoing regional growth is having dramatic impact on the land and must be factored into any decision making. This research—

• Provides a better understanding of the potential consequences of urban development on native flora and fauna
• Describes theoretical concerns prompted by scenario-based projections
• Gives an overview of the history of scenario-based techniques for urban and regional planning
• Helps define measures for maintaining undeveloped lands in rapidly developing areas

In publishing this research, the investigators provide information regarding issues of urban development and possible environmental consequences to stakeholders and jurisdictions whose actions may influence the future of the region. More broadly, the book will aid managers and stakeholders from other areas to engage spatial contingencies toward the goal of developing more resilient landscapes.