Macroeconomic Variables and Security Prices in India During the Liberalised Period

The liberalization and globalization of the Indian economy has made India more vulnerable to macro issues. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in India. The research findings and policy implications discussed here may also be relevant for other emerging economies.

The liberalization of the Indian economy and consequent strengthening of the relationship between the Indian financial system and the rest of the world has made India more vulnerable to macro issues. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in India. A wide range of statistical models are used to estimate and interpret the relationships between Indian stock prices and eleven macroeconomic variables during the liberalized period. While the author finds that the Indian stock market is sensitive to changes in macroeconomic fundamentals in the long run, in the short run only a few macroeconomic variables (such as consumer price index, foreign trade, and exchange rate) affect stock prices. The study also observes that the Indian stock market is approaching informational inefficiency in the long run. Research findings and policy implications discussed here provide insight into other emerging economies as well.