Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making : The Case of Turkey’s Syria Policy
1st ed. 2017
by
Imran Demir
Book Details
Format
Hardback or Cased Book
ISBN-10
3319526049
ISBN-13
9783319526041
Edition
1st ed. 2017
Publisher
Springer International Publishing AG
Imprint
Palgrave Macmillan
Country of Manufacture
GB
Country of Publication
GB
Publication Date
Apr 5th, 2017
Print length
142 Pages
Weight
322 grams
Dimensions
21.90 x 15.50 x 1.60 cms
Ksh 9,000.00
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This book introduces a new perspective on risk seeking behaviour, developing a framework based on various cognitive theories, and applying it to the specific case-study of Turkey’s foreign policy toward Syria.
This book introduces a new perspective on risk seeking behaviour, developing a framework based on various cognitive theories, and applying it to the specific case-study of Turkey''s foreign policy toward Syria. The author examines why policy makers commit themselves to polices that they do not have the capacity to deliver, and develops an alternative theoretical model to prospect theory in explaining risk taking behaviour based on the concept of overconfidence. The volume suggests that overconfident individuals exhibit risk seeking behaviour that contradicts the risk averse behaviour of individuals in the domain of gain, as predicted by prospect theory. Using a set of testable hypothesis deduced from the model, it presents an empirical investigation of the causes behind Turkish decision makers'' unprecedented level of risk taking toward the uprising in Syria and the consequences of this policy.
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