Shocking Contrasts : Political Responses to Exogenous Supply Shocks

Students of history, politics, economic change, social hierarchy, and even Fascism will view this book as provocative and indispensable. It illuminates how plagues, blockades, migrations, and such world-changing innovations as the invention of printing precipitate political and social revolutions in some societies but peaceful adaptation in others.

In the fourteenth century, the Black Death killed as much as two thirds of Europe''s population; in the fifteenth, the introduction of moveable-type printing rapidly expanded Europe''s supply of human capital; between 1850 and 1914, Russia''s population almost tripled; and in World War I, the British blockade starved some 800,000 Germans. Each of these, Shocking Contrasts argues, amounted to an unanticipated shock, positive or negative, to the supply of a crucial factor of production; and elicited one of four main responses: factor substitution; factor movement to a different sector or region; technological innovation; or political action, sometimes extending to coercion at home or conquest abroad. This book examines parsimonious models of factor returns, relative costs, and technological innovation. It offers a framework for understanding the role of supply shocks in major political conflicts and argues that its implications extend far beyond these specific cases to any period of human history.