System Dynamics : Modelling and Simulation with Excel

“System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation with Excel is a practical guide to understanding and managing complex, dynamic systems using a tool most professionals already know: Microsoft Excel.

The book shows how to build, test, and analyze System Dynamics models without programming. No prior knowledge of Excel or System Dynamics is assumed. Through worked examples, readers learn how feedback, accumulation, delays, and non-linear relationships drive real-world behavior over time—and why small structural changes can produce large, and often counter-intuitive, effects.

System Dynamics is used to answer three persistent questions faced by decision-makers: Where are we now? How did we get here? And where are we headed if current trends continue? The emphasis throughout is on policy exploration—using models to test interventions safely before acting in the real world.

Excel is used deliberately as a transparent modeling environment rather than a black-box simulator. Readers are taken step by step through model formulation, simulation, testing, and interpretation. Case studies are drawn from business, healthcare, environmental sustainability, and public policy, illustrating how the same underlying principles apply across domains.

By the end of the book, readers will be able to design and simulate their own System Dynamics models in Excel and use them to reason more clearly about complex problems in practice.