The Hedgers : How The Global South Navigates the Sino-American Competition

Global instability from war, U.S.-China tensions, and Trump's return raises a key question: How can resource-rich Global South states navigate turbulence? Studying eight 'Hedgers' India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, South Africa, and Brazil we explore whether they embrace bipolarity or amplify hedging to shape a multipolar order.

The extreme instability caused by the interminable war in Ukraine, Sino-American tensions, and Trump's return to power raises an essential question: How can the states of the Global South – particularly those endowed with significant resources and full of ambition – navigate this current global turbulence? Are they succumbing to the logic of bipolarity, or are they escaping from it by amplifying their hedging power, and, in the process, making the international system more multipolar? To answer these key questions, we analyze the strategic behavior of eight states: India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, South Africa, and Brazil. Their selection is based on eight precise metrics. It is these eight key states that we call the Hedgers. They are among the countries of the Global South that have good opportunities to navigate – with some challenges – the troubled environment of what is increasingly difficult to call the 'world order.'