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This monograph is not statistical. It looks instead at pre-statistical assumptions about dependent variables and causal order. Professor Davis spells out the logical principles that underlie our ideas of causality and explains how to discover causal direction, irrespective of the statistical technique used. He stresses throughout that knowledge of the "real world" is important and repeatedly challenges the myth that causal problems can be solved by statistical calculations alone.

Social scientists routinely draw conclusions about cause and effect from their data. This book spells out the pre-statistical assumptions of multivariate research and explains in nonmathematical terms: the concepts of causal direction and system order; direct, indirect, and spurious statistical effects; signs and the sign rule; rules for introducing control variables, elaboration and explanation, "effects analysis," and path analysis. The book is not statistical in the sense of developing specific statistical tools. Rather, it explains the prestatistical assumptions required, whatever the technique. The importance of substantive knowledge about the "real world" is stressed, and the myth that causal problems can be solved by statistical calculations alone is repeatedly challenged.

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The Logic of Causal Order

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