The Origins of Great Power Rivalries : A Rational Theory of Principled Motivations, and Historical Context

Comprehensively examines how states integrate historical context into their threat estimates. Using nearly 1000 interviews with national security elites, and historical documents, Joseph provides a theoretically informed perspective into US national security policy towards China, and the trajectory of great power rivalries since 1850.

Michael F. Joseph's The Origins of Great Power Rivalries advances a comprehensive rationalist theory of how great powers assess emerging threats; why enduring great power rivalries unfold through either delayed competition, or delayed peace; and how diplomacy functions when rising powers emerge on the scene. In an important departure from traditional realist theory, Joseph argues that countries are motivated by distinct principles - normative values that shape foreign policy beyond simple security concerns. Exploring instances of great power competition, he explains why rational states draw qualitative inferences about rivals' intentions by examining the historical context of their demands, not just military capabilities. Offering an analysis of great power rivalries since 1850, Joseph illuminates British reactions to Stalin at the beginning of the Cold War, among other rivalries. He animates a theoretically sophisticated defense of America's approach to China in the post-Cold War era with 100s of Washington-insider interviews.