US–China Trade Dynamics : Indirect Value-Added Trade Under Geopolitical Uncertainty

This book provides one of the first longitudinal, data-driven analyses of how Chinese domestic value added reaches the United States market indirectly, in an era of tariff tensions, trade wars and fragmented production. It integrates value-added trade decomposition with a structural analysis of indirect trade routes.

This book provides one of the first longitudinal, data-driven analyses of how Chinese domestic value added reaches the United States market indirectly, in an era of tariff tensions, trade wars and fragmented production. Moving beyond gross bilateral trade statistics it traces Chinese value added embodied in US import inflows and distinguishing direct entry from indirect entry through third-country exporters. It integrates value-added trade decomposition with a structural analysis of indirect trade routes, while also contributing to ongoing academic and policy debates on decoupling. Using ADB multi-regional input-output data for 2017-2024, the book develops a layered framework covering exposure levels, 1-hop and 2-hop intermediary structures, route concentration, sectoral patterns and country roles. It pays particular attention to Mexico, Vietnam and Korea as distinct intermediary economies rather than treating third-country channels as a single rerouting mechanism. Readers gain a clearer method for interpreting trade exposure when production content, shipment origin and final market entry no longer coincide. Overall, the book shows why reduced bilateral visibility does not necessarily mean weaker production-based interdependence. This will be a valuable resource for researchers, graduate students and policy analysts interested in global value chains, value-added trade, US-China trade relations, supply-chain reconfiguration and the limits of decoupling narratives.